New Zealand Plant Protection 58 (2005): 7-11
Estimating the probability of eradication of painted apple moth from Auckland
J.M. Kean and D.M. Suckling
ABSTRACT
A set of assumptions can be used to estimate the confidence that a continuing lack of detection reflects successful eradication of a pest population. This approach is applied to the painted apple moth (Teia anartoides) in Auckland, New Zealand, based on its known population biology and sterile insect recapture results. The analysis suggests that it is extremely unlikely that any wild population might have survived near the core trapping areas beyond mid January 2004, but that there was a significant chance that a small wild population could have remained undetected until then in less intensively trapped areas. The moth trapped in Mt Eden in January 2004 plausibly indicates an undetected population there, but a continued lack of trap catches over the subsequent year suggests that it is very unlikely that any wild populations now remain undetected within the trapping grid. This analysis could be easily adapted for other species targeted for eradication.
Keywords: pheromone trapping, Teia anartoides, sterile male technique, dispersal.
Copyright © 2005 New Zealand Plant Protection Society (Inc.).
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 | Evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of sterile insect release strategies against painted apple moth, Teia anartoides S.L. Wee, J.M. Kean, A.E.A. Stephens and D.M. Suckling (2006) New Zealand Plant Protection 59: 109-118 |
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© 2007 New Zealand Plant Protection Society (Inc.)